Hand of the Day, 14 Oct 2026

Wednesday, 14 October 2026. Hand of the Day number 3. Difficulty 3 of 7: the week gets harder from Monday to Sunday.

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OmarNitWednesday

Omar never shows a card until the end: you have the betting and the board to go on.

  1. PreflopLimp
  2. Flop3♣4♥A♣Bet 2/3 pot
  3. Turn3♣4♥A♣7♦Bet pot
  4. River3♣4♥A♣7♦5♠Bet pot

Which hand does Omar most likely have?

Show the answer

Most likely: Two pair

7of 16 combos are two pair
16combos left after Omar’s betting
Two pairwhat Omar held

Two pair is the biggest slice of the range by weight: about 2.9 of its 7 combos play this line. Set has more (9 combos) but plays it less often. Omar had A♦ 3♦: two pair, just as the odds said.

Omar held A♦3♦

The working
  1. Range. Omar’s line leaves 16 combos, about 4.2 by weight of 1,326 16 of 1,326 combos
  2. Two pair. 7 combos, about 2.9 by weight 7 of 16 combos
  3. Set. 9 combos, about 1.3 by weight 9 of 16 combos
  4. By weight. Hands taken only some of the time count at part weight, so the biggest slice is the one with the most weight.
  5. By kind. Value 100%, pairs 0%, draws and bluffs 0%. The kind of hand is the read that matters most; the biggest slice is the detail.
  6. Showdown. Omar had A♦ 3♦: Two pair, 7 combos of the 16 A♦3♦

Then decide: call or fold?

Omar bets 12 into 12. Call or fold? Amounts are in big blinds.

The river3♣4♥A♣7♦5♠
Your hand4♣4♦
12the pot
12Omar’s bet
12to call
Show the answer

Calling is right

Omar’s range, from the read: 12 combos. 6 sets and better · 6 two pair

33%the price: what you need
97%your chance against that range

The price was right. You needed 33%, and against what Omar likely holds you win 97%. You win this pot more often than not, and the price is in your favour too.

The working
  1. The price. You call 12 to win 24 (the 12 in the pot and Omar’s 12). That is 12 ÷ (24 + 12) = 33%. To break even you need to win at least that often (pot odds). 12 to call into 24: 33%
  2. Your chance. After the read, 12 combos are left in Omar’s range. Counting every card that can still come, you win 97% of the time (ties count half; equity). 4♣4♦ 97%
  3. The comparison. 97% is more than 33%, so calling wins more than it costs over many hands like this one. 97% × 24 − 2.7% × 12 = +23 big blinds per call, on average.

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