Hand of the Day, 28 Oct 2026

Wednesday, 28 October 2026. Hand of the Day number 17. Difficulty 3 of 7: the week gets harder from Monday to Sunday.

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OmarNitWednesday

Omar never shows a card until the end: you have the betting and the board to go on.

  1. PreflopRaise to 5 big blinds
  2. Flop6♦8♦7♠Bet pot
  3. Turn6♦8♦7♠6♠Bet pot
  4. River6♦8♦7♠6♠2♠Bet 1/3 pot

Which hand does Omar most likely have?

Show the answer

Most likely: Overpair

36of 36 combos are overpair
36combos left after Omar’s betting
An overpairwhat Omar held

Overpair is the biggest slice of the range by weight: about 15.4 of its 36 combos play this line. Omar had Q♣ Q♥: an overpair, just as the odds said.

Omar held Q♣Q♥

The working
  1. Range. Omar’s line leaves 36 combos, about 15.4 by weight of 1,326 36 of 1,326 combos
  2. Overpair. 36 combos, about 15.4 by weight 36 of 36 combos
  3. By weight. Hands taken only some of the time count at part weight, so the biggest slice is the one with the most weight.
  4. By kind. Value 4%, pairs 96%, draws and bluffs 0%. The kind of hand is the read that matters most; the biggest slice is the detail.
  5. Showdown. Omar had Q♣ Q♥: Overpair, 36 combos of the 36 Q♣Q♥

Then decide: call or fold?

Omar bets 32 into 96. Call or fold? Amounts are in big blinds.

The river6♦8♦7♠6♠2♠
Your handA♣10♣
96the pot
32Omar’s bet
32to call
Show the answer

Folding is right

Omar’s range, from the read: 30 combos. 30 overpairs and top pair

20%the price: what you need
0%your chance against that range

The price was too high. You needed 20%, and against what Omar likely holds you win 0%. Calling here would lose more than it wins over many hands, even though you would win about one time in ten.

The working
  1. The price. You call 32 to win 128 (the 96 in the pot and Omar’s 32). That is 32 ÷ (128 + 32) = 20%. To break even you need to win at least that often (pot odds). 32 to call into 128: 20%
  2. Your chance. After the read, 30 combos are left in Omar’s range. Counting every card that can still come, you win 0% of the time (ties count half; equity). A♣10♣ 0%
  3. The comparison. 0% is less than 20%, so calling costs more than it wins over many hands like this one. 0% × 128 − 100% × 32 = −32 big blinds per call, on average.

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