Hand of the Day, 25 Oct 2026

Sunday, 25 October 2026. Hand of the Day number 14. Difficulty 7 of 7: the week gets harder from Monday to Sunday.

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JonahCalling stationSunday

Jonah never shows a card until the end: you have the betting and the board to go on.

  1. PreflopLimp
  2. Flop8♥9♣7♣Bet 1/3 pot
  3. Turn8♥9♣7♣K♠Bet 1.5x pot
  4. River8♥9♣7♣K♠9♥Bet 1.5x pot

Which hand does Jonah most likely have?

Show the answer

Most likely: Two pair

18of 36 combos are two pair
36combos left after Jonah’s betting
Two pairwhat Jonah held

Two pair is the biggest slice of the range by weight: about 17.9 of its 18 combos play this line. Jonah had K♣ 8♣: two pair, just as the odds said.

Jonah held K♣8♣

The working
  1. Range. Jonah’s line leaves 36 combos, about 18.3 by weight of 1,326 36 of 1,326 combos
  2. Two pair. 18 combos, about 17.9 by weight 18 of 36 combos
  3. Full house. 6 combos, about 0.3 by weight 6 of 36 combos
  4. Top pair, top kicker. 12 combos, about 0.1 by weight 12 of 36 combos
  5. By weight. Hands taken only some of the time count at part weight, so the biggest slice is the one with the most weight.
  6. By kind. Value 100%, pairs 0%, draws and bluffs 0%. The kind of hand is the read that matters most; the biggest slice is the detail.
  7. Showdown. Jonah had K♣ 8♣: Two pair, 18 combos of the 36 K♣8♣

Then decide: call or fold?

Jonah bets 18 into 12. Call or fold? Amounts are in big blinds.

The river8♥9♣7♣K♠9♥
Your handK♥6♠
12the pot
18Jonah’s bet
18to call
Show the answer

Calling is right

Jonah’s range, from the read: 24 combos. 4 sets and better · 12 two pair · 8 overpairs and top pair

38%the price: what you need
49%your chance against that range

The price was right. You needed 38%, and against what Jonah likely holds you win 49%. You will still lose this pot about one time in two. The price pays for that over many hands.

The working
  1. The price. You call 18 to win 30 (the 12 in the pot and Jonah’s 18). That is 18 ÷ (30 + 18) = 38%. To break even you need to win at least that often (pot odds). 18 to call into 30: 38%
  2. Your chance. After the read, 24 combos are left in Jonah’s range. Counting every card that can still come, you win 49% of the time (ties count half; equity). K♥6♠ 49%
  3. The comparison. 49% is more than 38%, so calling wins more than it costs over many hands like this one. 49% × 30 − 51% × 18 = +5.4 big blinds per call, on average.

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