Hand of the Day, 21 Oct 2026

Wednesday, 21 October 2026. Hand of the Day number 10. Difficulty 3 of 7: the week gets harder from Monday to Sunday.

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RosaNitWednesday

Rosa never shows a card until the end: you have the betting and the board to go on.

  1. PreflopRaise to 5 big blinds
  2. Flop9♥4♥2♠Bet pot
  3. Turn9♥4♥2♠A♥Bet 1/3 pot
  4. River9♥4♥2♠A♥2♥Bet pot

Which hand does Rosa most likely have?

Show the answer

Most likely: Flush

9of 9 combos are flush
9combos left after Rosa’s betting
A flushwhat Rosa held

Flush is the biggest slice of the range by weight: about 5 of its 9 combos play this line. Rosa had Q♠ Q♥: a flush, just as the odds said.

Rosa held Q♠Q♥

The working
  1. Range. Rosa’s line leaves 9 combos, about 5 by weight of 1,326 9 of 1,326 combos
  2. Flush. 9 combos, about 5 by weight 9 of 9 combos
  3. By weight. Hands taken only some of the time count at part weight, so the biggest slice is the one with the most weight.
  4. By kind. Value 100%, pairs 0%, draws and bluffs 0%. The kind of hand is the read that matters most; the biggest slice is the detail.
  5. Showdown. Rosa had Q♠ Q♥: Flush, 9 combos of the 9 Q♠Q♥

Then decide: call or fold?

Rosa bets 48 into 48. Call or fold? Amounts are in big blinds.

The river9♥4♥2♠A♥2♥
Your hand9♦J♠
48the pot
48Rosa’s bet
48to call
Show the answer

Folding is right

Rosa’s range, from the read: 8 combos. 8 sets and better

33%the price: what you need
0%your chance against that range

The price was too high. You needed 33%, and against what Rosa likely holds you win 0%. Calling here would lose more than it wins over many hands, even though you would win about one time in ten.

The working
  1. The price. You call 48 to win 96 (the 48 in the pot and Rosa’s 48). That is 48 ÷ (96 + 48) = 33%. To break even you need to win at least that often (pot odds). 48 to call into 96: 33%
  2. Your chance. After the read, 8 combos are left in Rosa’s range. Counting every card that can still come, you win 0% of the time (ties count half; equity). 9♦J♠ 0%
  3. The comparison. 0% is less than 33%, so calling costs more than it wins over many hands like this one. 0% × 96 − 100% × 48 = −48 big blinds per call, on average.

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