Hand of the Day, 18 Oct 2026

Sunday, 18 October 2026. Hand of the Day number 7. Difficulty 7 of 7: the week gets harder from Monday to Sunday.

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JonahCalling stationSunday

Jonah never shows a card until the end: you have the betting and the board to go on.

  1. PreflopLimp
  2. Flop7♥A♦A♠Bet 1.5x pot
  3. Turn7♥A♦A♠K♦Bet 1.5x pot
  4. River7♥A♦A♠K♦5♦Bet 1.5x pot

Which hand does Jonah most likely have?

Show the answer

Most likely: Trips

70of 92 combos are trips
92combos left after Jonah’s betting
A full housewhat Jonah held

Trips is the biggest slice of the range: 70 combos. Jonah had A♣ 5♠: a full house. This line is most often trips; this time it wasn’t.

Jonah held A♣5♠

The working
  1. Range. Jonah’s line leaves 92 combos, about 86.8 by weight of 1,326 92 of 1,326 combos
  2. Trips. 70 combos 70 of 92 combos
  3. Full house. 21 combos, about 16.5 by weight 21 of 92 combos
  4. Four of a kind. 1 combo, about 0.3 by weight 1 of 92 combos
  5. By weight. Hands taken only some of the time count at part weight, so the biggest slice is the one with the most weight.
  6. By kind. Value 100%, pairs 0%, draws and bluffs 0%. The kind of hand is the read that matters most; the biggest slice is the detail.
  7. Showdown. Jonah had A♣ 5♠: Full house, 21 combos of the 92 A♣5♠

Then decide: call or fold?

Jonah bets 54 into 36. Call or fold? Amounts are in big blinds.

The river7♥A♦A♠K♦5♦
Your hand9♥A♥
36the pot
54Jonah’s bet
54to call
Show the answer

Calling is right

Jonah’s range, from the read: 46 combos. 46 sets and better

38%the price: what you need
49%your chance against that range

The price was right. You needed 38%, and against what Jonah likely holds you win 49%. You will still lose this pot about one time in two. The price pays for that over many hands.

The working
  1. The price. You call 54 to win 90 (the 36 in the pot and Jonah’s 54). That is 54 ÷ (90 + 54) = 38%. To break even you need to win at least that often (pot odds). 54 to call into 90: 38%
  2. Your chance. After the read, 46 combos are left in Jonah’s range. Counting every card that can still come, you win 49% of the time (ties count half; equity). 9♥A♥ 49%
  3. The comparison. 49% is more than 38%, so calling wins more than it costs over many hands like this one. 49% × 90 − 51% × 54 = +16.8 big blinds per call, on average.

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